Using our guessometer, we predict that October to December 2017 will be Crowdcube's best Q to date.
We estimate that by the end of this month, the Cube will have raised around £30m for businesses since October 2017. That is real money raised and delivered to the business, not the clock and bull figure they use for 'investments made' on all pitches including those that fail.
At their new commission rate of around 6%, that raises the Cube £1.8m for the quarter. Annualised that would mean a total revenue of £7.2m - which is below BE but its heading in the right direction. Q3 was a long way short of this at £14.4m, with £1m generated revenue (Cubist figures). So over a 12 month period things may not be so good. We also wonder on what percentage Just Park recently completed their multi million pound raise.
This is still pretty staggering. Given that they have not produced a single real winner in 6 years and have a long and growing list of scandals. Investors tell us that they wouldnt touch them and then secretly go ahead and invest what they call 'just a small amount'. Well lots of small amounts makes a big pile. The very mantra that started this whole ECF thing.
So for now we think the company will make it to Christmas and beyond. If in 2018 it eventually manages to deliver a winner - just one would do - then it might just have a future. Currently it seems investors are not that worried about the DD, or lack of it. Or the fudging of the stats or the gross misrepresentation that so many of their pitches employ. Lost money in Crowdcube funded businesses has left ROI for dead - disappearing over the horizon. We will be producing an updated list in the next week or so. It will make little difference.
Like moths to the flame they keep coming. Stop the moths and the light goes out.
HI Rob, serious question, what alternatives in the UK are there for small investors to get into early stage Angel investing / startups ? As a newbie it's hard to figure out where to go. Maybe the answer is "don't do it, stick to listed stocks" or startup funds - if so, that's fine.
ReplyDeleteI was initially dismissive of your blog BUT having had a root around and looked into some of your comments I now understand where you are coming from and think of your blog as a "must read"
Kind Regards
Steve
This one should at last be a winner for them with a rumoured £100m IPO: https://www.crowdcube.com/investment/silkfred-ltd-12786
ReplyDeleteFantastic blog by the way.
Thanks. Having read numerous 'reports' that turn out to be total rubbish I never trusts much of what is printed in the Press - especially as this was an internally generated PR trailed all over the place. Saying you are going to have an IPO at £100m is in my experience a long way from having one. But granted this company is one of the few actually doing something.
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